Recent papers
Thorvaldur Gylfason
   

For more detail,
see this page.


Negative Interest      In print
The American Economist, October 2017.

From Double Diversification to Efficiency and Growth      In print
Comparative Economic Studies, June 2017.

From Economic Diversification to Growth      Forthcoming
Forthcoming in a book edited by Rabah Arezki and Raouf Boucekkine.

Iceland´s New Constitution Is Not Solely a Local Concern      In print
Challenge, 2016.

The Anatomy of Constitution Making: From Denmark in 1849 to Iceland in 2017      Forthcoming
CESifo Working Paper No. 6488, May 2017.

Incomes, Hours of Work, and Equality in Europe and the United States      In print
In Luigi Paganetto (ed.), Sustainable Growth in the EU: Challenges and Solutions, Springer, 2017. Also available under a longer title, Efficiency, Fairness, and Social Cohesion in Europe and the United States: Incomes, Hours of Work, and Equality with an Afterthought on Iceland, as CESifo Working Paper No. 6025, August 2016.

Chain of Legitimacy: Constitution Making in Iceland      Forthcoming
In Jon Elster, Roberto Gargarella, Vatsal Naresh, and Bjørn Erik Rasch (eds.), Constituent Assemblies. Cambridge University Press, New York, 2018. Also available as CESifo Working Paper No. 6018, July 2016.

The EU’s Open Arms and Small States      In print on the web
Nordicum-Mediterraneum: Icelandic E-Journal of Nordic and Mediterranean Studies, May 2016.

Digital Tools and the Derailment of Iceland´s New Constitution (with Anne Meuwese)      In print
Forthcoming in Corien Prins, Peter Lindseth, Monica Guisse, and Colette Cuijpers (eds.), Digital Democracy in a Globalized World, Edward Elgar, 2017. Also available as CESifo Working Paper 5997, July 2016.

Economic Diversification: Six Case Studies      Will appear soon, has not yet been released.

Social Capital, Inequality, and Economic Crisis      In print
Challenge, July 2015. — Available also under a slightly different title as CESifo Working Paper No. 5423, July 2015, and as Chapter 1 in Makropolitik i kris: En vänskrift till Lars Jonung med anledning av hans 70-årsdag, Lund, 2016.

Double Diversification with an Application to Iceland (with Per Magnus Wijkman)      In print
In Mahroum, S., and Al-Saleh, Y. (eds.), Economic Diversification Policies in Natural Resource Rich Economies, Routledge, 2016. — Available also as CESifo Working Paper No. 5386, June 2015.

Around the World with Irving Fisher (with Helgi Tómasson and Gylfi Zoega)      In print
North American Journal of Economics and Finance, February 2016. — Available also as CESifo Working Paper No. 5257, March 2015.

Negative Interest      In print

In Swedish in Birgitta Swedenborg (ed.), Swedish in Swedish Economic Policy Then, Now, and in the Future, a Festschrift for Professor Hans Tson Söderström, Dialogos, Stockholm, 2015. See English version here. See slides here.

Constitution on Ice      In print
Available in a shorter version in Valur Ingimundarson, Philipe Urfalino, and Irma Erlingsdóttir (eds.), Iceland’s Financial Crisis: The Politics of Blame, Protest, and Reconstruction (2016), Routledge, London, England. — Also available as CESifo Working Paper 5056, November 2014.

Diversification, Dutch Disease, and Economic Growth: Options for Uganda (with Jean-Pascal Nguessa Nganou)      In print
In Mahroum, S., and Al-Saleh, Y. (eds.), Economic Diversification Policies in Natural Resource Rich Economies (2016), Routledge. — Available also as CESifo Working Paper No. 5095, November 2014.

Free Trade Agreements, Institutions and Exports of Eastern Partnership Countries (with Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso and Per Magnus Wijkman)      In print
Journal of Common Market Studies
, June 2015. An earlier version, upstaged by events in Ukraine, appeared as "Can and Should the EU's Eastern Partnership be Saved?," CESifo Working Paper No. 4869, July 2014. See accompanying slides.

The Dutch Disease in Reverse: Iceland’s Natural Experiment (with Gylfi Zoega)      Submitted for publication
OxCarre Research Paper 138
, May 2014. Revised as CESifo Working Paper No. 6513, June 2017.

Iceland: How Could This Happen?      In print
In Torben M. Andersen, Michael Bergman, and Svend E. Hougaard Jensen (eds.), Reform Capacity and Macroeconomic Performance in the Nordic Countries, Oxford University Press, 2015. — Also available as as CESifo Working Paper No. 4605, January 2014. See accompanying slides.

A Tale of Two Debtors: Iceland, Ireland — and Their Banks      In print
Milken Institute Review
, April 2013.

Constitutions: Financial Crisis Can Lead to Change      In print
Challenge, September-October 2012.

How Free Trade Can Help Convert the ’Arab Spring’ into Permanent Peace and Democracy (with Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso and Per Magnus Wijkman)       In print
Defence and Peace Economics, March 2014.  
Also available as CESifo Working Paper No. 3882, July 2012.

From Collapse to Constitution: The Case of Iceland      In print
In Luigi Paganetto (ed.), Public Debt, Global Governance and Economic Dynamism, Springer, 2013. — Also available as CESifo Working Paper No. 3770, March/June 2012.

A Decade of Editing the European Economic Review (with Zvi Eckstein, Esther Gal-Or, Jürgen von Hagen, and Gerard Pfann)       In print
In M. Szenberg and L. Ramrattan (eds.), Secrets of Economics Editors, MIT Press, 2014. — Also available as IZA Discussion Paper No. 5982 and CESifo Working Paper No. 3638, December 2011.

Which Conflicts Can the European Neighbourhood Policy Help Resolve? (with Per Magnus Wijkman     In print soon
In Bent Jesper Christensen, and Carsten Kowalczyk (eds.), Globalization: Strategies and Effects, Springer Verlag (forthcoming). Presented at a conference on Globalization, Strategies and Effects at the University of Aarhus in November 2011. — Available as CESifo Working Paper No. 3861, June 2012.

Resources and Economic Growth: Is Africa (Ghana) Different?      In print
In Policy Conference: Competitiveness & Diversification: Strategic Challenges in a Petroleum-Rich Economy (UNIDO, 2012).

Commodity Price Volatility, Democracy and Economic Growth (with Rabah Arezki)      In print
In Olivier de La Grandville (ed.), Frontiers of Economic Growth and Development, foreword by Robert M. Solow, Emerald, 2011.  — Also available as CESifo Working Paper No. 3619, October 2011. See accompanying slides.

Resource Rents, Democracy and Corruption: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa (with Rabah Arezki)      In print
Journal of African Economies, January 2013. — Also available as CESifo Working Paper No. 3575, September 2011. See accompanying slides.

Natural Resource Endowment: A Mixed Blessing?      In print
In Rabah Arezki, Thorvaldur Gylfason, and Amadou Sy (eds.), Beyond the Curse: Policies to Harness the Power of Natural Resources
, International Monetary Fund, 2011. — Also available as CESifo Working Paper No. 3353, February 2011.

Growing Together: Croatia and Latvia (with Eduard Hochreiter)      In print
Comparative Economic Studies, June 2011. — Also available as CESifo Working Paper No. 3202, October 2010.

Iceland: After the Fall      In print
Milken Insititute Review, First Quarter, 2010.

Development and Growth in Mineral-Rich Countries: Why Social Policy Matters      In print
In Katja Hujo (ed.), Mineral rents and the financing of social policy: Opportunities and challenges, Palgrave Macmillan, 2012. — Available also as CEPR Discussion Paper 7031, October 2008.

Dutch Disease      In print on the web
The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics Online.

Growing Apart? A Tale of Two Republics: Estonia and Georgia (with Eduard Hochreiter)      In print
European Journal of Political Economy, September 2009.
— Also available as IMF Working Paper No. 08/235, September 2008, and CESifo Working Paper No. 2155, December 2007.

A Golden Rule of Depreciation (with Gylfi Zoega)      In print
Economics Letters, September 2007. — Also available under a shorter title, Obsolescence, as CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2833, June 2001.

The International Economics of Natural Resources and Growth      In print
Minerals and Energy, June 2007. — Available also as CESifo Working Paper No. 1994, May 2007. Appeared also in Russian translation in the Economic Journal of the Higher School of Economics, September 2008.

Privatization, Efficiency, and Economic Growth      In print
In The Socio-Economic Transformation: Getting Closer to What?, eds. Zbigniew Nahorski, Jan W. Owsinski, and Tomasz Szapiro, Palgrave (MacMillan), London, 2007. — Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper No. 1844

Why Europe Works Less and Grows Taller      In print
Challenge, January-February 2007.

Natural Resources and Economic Growth: The Role of Investment (with Gylfi Zoega)     In print
World Economy, August 2006. — A longer version is available as CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2743, March 2001.

Institutions, Human Capital, and Diversification of Rentier Economies      In print
In Dead Ends of Transition: Rentier Economies and Protectorates, Michael Dauerstädt and Arne Schildberg (eds.), Campus, 2006. — Prepared for Workshop on Transforming Authoritarian Rentier Economies at the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Bonn 21-24 September 2005 and appeared in Dead Ends of Transition: Rentier Economies and Protectorates, eds. Michael Dauderstädt and Arne Schildberg, Campus, Frankfurt/Main 2006.

The Road from Agriculture (with Gylfi Zoega)     In print
In Institutions, Development, and Economic Growth, eds. Theo Eicher og
Cecilia García-Peñalosa, MIT Press, May 2006

How do India and China Grow?     In print
Challenge, January-February 2006. — Based on presentation at the MEFMI Combined Forum of Ministers of Finance and Planning, Treasury Secretaries and Permanent Secretaries for Finance and Planning, and Central Bank Governors, 17 September 2005, Bridgetown, Barbados. See printed version here.

Interview with Assar Lindbeck     In print
Macroeconomic Dynamics, February 2006. — Also available as CESifo Working Paper No. 1408, February 2005. Appeared also in Swedish in Ekonomisk Debatt, November 2005.

Natural Resources and Economic Growth: From Dependence to Diversification     In print
In
Economic Liberalization and Integration Policy: Options for Eastern Europe and Russia, eds. Harry G. Broadman, Tiiu Paas, and Paul J. J. Welfens, Springer, Heidelberg and Berlin, 2006. — Available as CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4804, December 2004.

To Grow or Not to Grow: Why Institutions Must Make a Difference     In print
CESifo DICE Report 2, Summer 2004.

Monetary and Fiscal Management, Finance, and Growth     In print
Empirica, June-September 2004. — Available also as CES Working Paper No. 1118.

To Grow or Not to Grow: Is Africa Different? No.     In print
MEFMI FORUM, March 2004. 

Education, Social Equality and Economic Growth: A View of the Landscape (with Gylfi Zoega)     In print
CES Economic Studies, December 2003. — Also available as CES Working Paper No. 876.

Icelandic Fisheries Management: Fees vs. Quotas (with Martin Weitzman)    New
CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3849, March 2003.

Inequality and Economic Growth: Do Natural Resources Matter? (with Gylfi Zoega)     In print
In Inequality and Growth: Theory and Policy Implications, eds. Theo Eicher and Stephen Turnovsky, MIT Press, 2003. — Also available as CES Working Paper No. 712

The Real Exchange Rate Always Floats     In print
Australian Economic Papers, December 2002, where it appeared in a special issue. — Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3376, May 2002.

Mother Earth: Ally or Adversary?     In print
World Economics, January-March 2002.  

Natural Resources and Economic Growth: What is the Connection?      In print
Published in a conference volume entitled Fostering Sustainable Growth in Ukraine, eds. Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel and Iryna Akimova, Physica-Verlag (A Springer-Verlag Company), Heidelberg and New York, 2002, in Ukrainian as well as English. — A longer version is in circulation as CESifo Working Paper No. 530, 2001. 

Lessons from the Dutch Disease: Causes, Treatment, and Cures      In print
In Paradox of Plenty: The Management of Oil Wealth, Report 12/02, ECON, Centre for Economic Analysis, Oslo, 2002. 

Does Inflation Matter for Growth? (with Tryggvi Thor Herbertsson)     In print
Japan and the World Economy, December 2001. — Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper No. 1503.

Nature, Power, and Growth     In print
Scottish Journal of Political Economy, November 2001. 

Ownership and Growth (with Tryggvi Thor Herbertsson and Gylfi Zoega)     In print
World Bank Economic Review, October 2001. 

Obsolescence (with Gylfi Zoega)     In print
CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2833, June 2001. 
A shorter version, entitled "A Golden Rule of Depreciation," appeared in Economics Letters, September 2007 (see above).

Natural Resources, Education, and Economic Development      In print
European Economic Review in May 2001. — Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2594, October 2000. 

Nordic Integration and European Integration     In print
In Regionalism in Europe: Geometries and Strategies After 2000,  eds. Jürgen von Hagen and Mika Widgren, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001. 

Education, Social Equality and Economic Growth: A View of the Landscape (with Gylfi Zoega)     In print
In Education + Training => Knowledge + Innovation => Economic + Social Growth, Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference organized by the Athens Institute for Education and Research, ed. Gregory T. Papanikos, Athens, 2001.  

Fix or Flex? Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in an Era of Global Capital Mobility      In print
North American Journal of Economics and Finance, December 2000. 

Resources, Agriculture, and Economic Growth in Economies in Transition     In print
Kyklos, 4/2000.

Growing Apart      In print
Journal of World Trade, August 2000.

Icelandic Economists: Have They Made a Difference? A Personal View     In print
Nationaløkonomisk tidsskrift, 3/2000 (in Danish). 

A Mixed Blessing: Natural Resources and Economic Growth (with Tryggvi Thor Herbertsson and Gylfi Zoega)     In print
Macroeconomic Dynamics, June 1999.

Exports, Inflation, and Growth     In print
World Development, June 1999.

The Path of Output from Plan to Market     In progress

Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Nordic Perspective on the Dutch Disease     In print
In Macroeconomic Policy: Iceland in an Era of Global Integration, ed. Mar Gudmundsson, Tryggvi Thor Herbertsson, and Gylfi Zoega, Iceland University Press, Reykjavík, 2000. — An abridged version of the paper was published in Resource Abundance and Economic Development, ed. Richard M. Auty, Oxford University Press, August 2001. 

Easy pieces  
A few short pieces on various topics.


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Nyerere meets Idi Amin
by Mohamedi Wasia Charinda

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