Žjóšhagfręši II

Tilkynning:

 

Prófsżning vegna žjóšhagfręši II veršur ķ hśsi Hagfręšistofnunar, Aragötu
14, klukkan 10 aš morgni mįnudagsins 10. febrśar.

 

 

 

 

Hįskóli Ķslands - Hagfręšiskor - BS nįm - Haust 2002           

                                                                            

Prófiš frį žvķ ķ fyrra

Glósur śr köflum 14-21

 

 

 

Kennarar:

 Gylfi Zoega   

(gzoega@econ.bbk.ac.uk)

  Siguršur Jóhannesson

 

Vištalstķmi samkvęmt  samkomulagi

 

Kennslubękur:

 

*Olivier Blanchard (2000): Macroeconomics. 2nd edition, Prentice-Hall International.

Huw David Dixon (2001), Surfing Economics: Essays for the Inquiring Economist,  Palgrave.

Edmund S. Phelps (1985), Political Economy: An Introductory Text, W.W. Norton & Company.

 

 

Yfirferš efnis:

1.      Grundvallarhugtök   (Gylfi Zoega)

Įšur en lengra er haldiš, veršum viš aš kynnast helstu hugtökum žjóšhagfręšinnar, svo sem vergri landsframleišslu, veršbólgu og atvinnuleysi. Kafli ķ bók Huw Dixon fjallar um skilgreiningu hugtaksins “jafnvęgi” sem mun koma mikiš viš sögu ķ žessu nįmskeiši sem öšrum.

 

*Bl       kafli 2

Huw Dixon, kafli 2.

 

2.     Skammtķmagreining

  Jafnvęgi į vörumarkaši   (Gylfi Zoega)

  Hagsveiflur verša ķ öllum markašshagkerfum er framleišsla sveiflast kerfisbundiš ķ kringum um langtķmaleitni sķna. Slķkar sveiflur geta oft veriš miklar, eins og heimskreppan mikla į žrišja įratug aldarinnar ber vitni um, en hafa oftar einkum ķ för meš sér breytingu į tekjuskiptingu žegar fįir verša fyrir alvarlegum skakkaföllum ķ formi atvinnumissis en ašrir sleppa vel.

Žęr kenningar sem nś eru helst notašar til žess aš greina ešli og orsakir hagsveiflna eiga rętur aš rekja til Keynes (1936) og tślkunar Hicks į kenningum hans. Žetta er hiš vķšfręga IS-LM lķkan. Grundvallarhugmyndin er sś aš til skamms tķma rįši eftirspurn framleišslu. Hér er žį įtt viš įrsfjóršunga og fįein įr. Žegar eftirspurn eykst frį einum įrsfjóršungi til annars žį bregšast fyrirtęki viš meš žvķ aš auka framleišslu sķna.  Hins vegar getur žetta lķkan varla śskżrt breytingar framleišslu frį einum įratug til annars, svo ekki sé nś talaš um mismun framleišslu frį einu landi til annars.

Einn hornsteinn lķkansins er jafnvęgi į vörumarkaši žar sem framleišsla ręšst af eftirspurn.

  *Bl       kafli 3

  Christina D. Romer (1993), “The Nation in Depression”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7, p. 19-40.

 

Peningar og jafnvęgi į eignamörkušum (Gylfi Zoega)

  Annar hornsteinn IS-LM lķkansins er jafnvęgi į markaši fyrir peninga og skuldabréf.

  *Bl       kafli 4

Heildarjafnvęgi   (Gylfi Zoega)

 

Žegar viš drögum saman jafnvęgi į vörumarkaši og peningamarkaši fįum viš heildarjafnvęgi (jafnvęgi į skuldabréfamarkaši fylgir skv. Lögmįli Walras og vinnumarkašurinn skiptir ekki mįli). Žetta einfalda Keynesķska likan hefur veriš gagnrżnt mikiš į undanförnum įrum (t.d. af King, 1993) en Nż-Keynesistar hafa variš helstu nišurstöšur žess (t.d.Greenwald and Stiglitz,1993;  Romer, 1993). Žaš er mikilvęgt aš žiš geriš ykkur grein fyrir takmörkunum žessa lķkans.

 

*Bl       kafli 5

Huw Dixon, kaflar 4-5.

Bruce Greenwald and Joseph Stiglitz (1993), “New and Old Keynesians”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7, 23-44.

Christina D. Romer (1999), “Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 13, p. 23-44.

David Romer (1993), “The New Keynesian Synthesis”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7, p. 5-22.

Joseph Stiglitz (1999), “Toward a General Theory of Wage and Price Rigidities and Economic Fluctuations”, The American Economic Review, 89, p. 75-80.

Robert G. King (1993), “Will the New Keynesian Macroeconomics Resurrect the IS-LM Model?, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7, p. 67-82.

Victor Zarnowitz (1999), “Theory and History Behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 13, p. 69-90.

 

3.      Litiš til lengri tķma:  Frambošshliš hagkerfisins  (Gylfi Zoega)

  Framleišsla hlżtur aš miklu leyti aš rįšast af magni framleišslužįtta; fjįrmagns og vinnuafls, og tęknistigi. Žótt aukin eftirspurn auki framleišslu žegar til skamms tķma er litiš, žį er hér um skammgóšan vermi aš ręša. Til lengri tķma litiš er žaš frambošshlišin sem skiptir höfušmįli, ž.e.a.s. hversu mikiš fyrirtęki geta framleitt.

Framboš aš gefnum framleišslužįttum og gefnu tęknistigi.

Viš byrjum į žvķ aš taka framboš framleišslužįttanna, fjįrmagns og vinnuafls, sem gefiš. Viš göngum einnig śt frį tęknistiginu sem gefnu.

Framboš vinnuafls ręšst af fjölda vinnufęrra karla og kvenna en einnig af stigi “jafnvęgisatvinnuleysis” eša žess sem nefnt hefur veriš “nįttśrulegt atvinnuleysi”.

Hugtak žetta į rętur aš rekja til framlags Milton Friedman (1968) and Edmund Phelps (1968). Umfangsmiklar rannsóknir hafa veriš geršar į undanförnum įrum į įkvöršunarvöldum žess ķ ljósi mikils og višvarandi atvinnuleysis ķ Evrópu.

Hękkun nįttśrulegs atvinnuleysis dregur śr atvinnu žegar til lengri tķma er litiš og veldur minna framboši framleišslu.

*Bl       kaflar 6-9, 22-23

Huw Dixon, kafli 3.

Douglas Staiger, James H. Stock, and Mark W. Watson (1997), “The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11, p. 33-50.

Edmund Phelps (1994). Structural Slumps: The Modern Equilibrium Theory of Unemployment, Interest and Assets. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Edmund Phelpsog Gylfi Zoega (1997), “The Rise and Downward Trend of the Natural Rate”, The American Economic Review, 87, p. 283-289.

Edmund Phelps  og Gylfi Zoega (2001), “Stocks and Jobs: the Valuation of Firms and Business Assets as a Factor in Structural Slumps and Booms”. Economic Policy.

Jean-Paul Fitoussi, David Jestaz, Edmund Phelps  og Gylfi Zoega (2000), “Roots of the Nascent Recoveries: Market Forces, Sound Finance, Labor Reforms and Enterprise Policy.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.

Milton Friedman (1968), “The Role of Monetary Policy”, The American Economic Review.

Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence F. Katz (1997), “What We Know and Do Not Know About the Natural Rate of Unemployment”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11, p. 51-72.

Olivier Blanchard og J. Wolfers (2000), “The role of shocks and institutions in the rise of European unemployment: the aggregate evidence,” Economic Journal, vol. 110.

Richard B. Freeman (1995), “Are Your Wages Set in Beijing?”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9, p. 15-32.

Richard Layard, Stepen Nickell, og Richard Jackman (1991), Unemployment - Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Stephen Nickell and Brian Bell (1996), “Changes in the Distribution of Wages and Unemployment in OECD Countries”, The American Economic Review, 86, p. 302-308.

Stephen Nickell (1997), “Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11, p. 55-74.

 

Hagvöxtur

 

Ein įhugaveršasta spurning žjóšhagfręšinnar er sś hvaš śtskżri tekjumun į milli žjóša og hvernig unnt sé aš bęta hag žjóšar žegar til lengri tķma er litiš. Segja mį aš žetta sé eitt mikilvęgasta rannsóknarefni žjóšhagfręšinna: Langtķmaleitni framleišslu skiptir mun meira mįli en skammtķmasveiflur hennar.

Um žetta fjallar hagvaxtarfręšin. Hśn leitast viš aš śtskżra įkvöršunarvalda tękniframfara og fjįrfestingar žegar til lengri tķma er litiš.

BL       10-13

  Dale W. Jorgenson og Kevin J. Stiroh (1999), “Information Technology and Growth”, The American Economic Review, 89, p. 109-115.

  Jeffrey A: Frankel og David Romer (1999), “Does Trade Cause Growth?”, The American Economic Review, 89, p. 379-399.

  Nicholas F. R. Crafts (1996), “The First Industrial Revolution: A Guided Tour for Growth Economists”, The American Economic Review, 86, 197-201.

  Robert Solow (1956), “A Contribution to theTheory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, p. 65-94.

 

4.      Vęntingar  (Įsgeir Jónsson)

  Gagnleg śtvķkkun lķkans okkar felur ķ sér lżsingu į vęntingamyndun. Helsta framlag Nżkeynesķska skólans var aš innleiša hagsżnisvęntingar (e. rational expectations) inn ķ hiš Keynesķska kenningakerfi. Žessir hagfręšingar sżndu fram į aš fjįrmįlastefna rķkisins og peningamįlastefna sešlabanka geta haft įhrif į framleišslu og atvinnuleysi žrįtt fyrir hagsżnisvęntingar.

  *Bl    kaflar  14-17

  Edmund S. Phelps (1999), “Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Theories of the Business Cycle”, in Small Open Economies in an Era of Global Integration. Gylfi Zoega, Mįr Gušmundsson, Tryggvi Herbertsson (eds.), University of Iceland Press, 2000.

 

5.      Opin hagkerfi  (Įsgeir Jónsson)

  Viš veršum einnig aš taka inn ķ dęmiš višskipti į milli žjóša og fjįrmagnsstreymi, įkvöršun gengis og breytileika vaxta og veršlags į milli landa. Žetta snertir umręšuna um myntsameiningu Evrópu. Nżleg grein eftir Willem Buiter fjallar um hag Ķslands af žvķ aš taka upp evruna. 

  *Bl       kaflar 18-21

  Barry Eichengreen (1993), “European Monetary Integration”, The Journal of Economic Literature.

  Kenneth Rogoff  (2001) Why Not a Global Currency?, American Economic Review 91.http://www.economics.harvard.edu/~krogoff/AER-May01.pdf

Buiter, Willem H. (2001): Er Ķsland hagkvęmt myntsvęši? Fjįrmįlatķšindi 48 įrgangur, seinna hefti. Ensk śtgįfa in Small Open Economies in an Era of Global Integration. Gylfi Zoega, Mįr Gušmundsson, Tryggvi Herbertsson (eds.), University of Iceland Press, 2000.

  Martin Feldstein (1997), “The Political Economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union: Political Sources of an Economic Liability”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11, p. 23-42.

  Richard Portes (1996), “Implementing EMU”, The American Economic Review, 86, p. 139-142.

  Robert Mundell (1997), “Currency Areas, Common Currencies, and EMU”, The American Economic Review, 87, p. 214-216.

 

6.      Fjįrmįla- og peningastefna   (Įsgeir Jónsson)

  Aš lokum fjöllum viš um  hlutverk peningamįla- og fjįrmįlastefnu og žaš į hvern hįtt unnt er aš leggja mat į hana? Er veršbólga alvarlegt vandamįl? Einnig opinberar skuldir og halli į fjįrlögum rķkisins?

  *Bl       kaflar 25-27

  John B. Taylor (1995), “The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9, p. 11-26.

  Jerry A. Frieden (1997): The Politics of Exchange Rates [from Sebastian Edwards & Moises Naim, eds., Mexico 1994: Anatomy of an Emerging Market Crash, ch. 3 (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1997)] http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~jfrieden/exchange2.pdf

Frederic S. Mishkin (2000) Financial stability and the Macroeconomy, in Small Open Economies in an Era of Global Integration. Gylfi Zoega, Mįr Gušmundsson, Tryggvi Herbertsson (eds.), University of Iceland Press, 2000.